Putin Strategic Error: Use of Syrian and Iraqi refugees as a weapon against OTAN

President Putin of Russia is against a strong European Union and a strong NATO. The Kremlin likely that participated in sniper fire that killed pro-EU protesters Ukraine in 2014. Putin took advantage of the Greek financial crisis of 2015 to sow disunity in the EU. And in 2016, it is allowing Assad of Syria to attack civilians to flee to NATO countries as refugees. Since September 2015 Russia itself used bombing of civilian areas in Syria, including targeted hospitals, and provides the intelligence for the bombing in Iraq. Prime Minister Al-Abadi of Iraq has welcomed Russia to launch air strikes in Iraq.

Russian air strikes in Syria have killed nearly 1,400 civilians until January 2016. A quarter of the refugees entering Europe million last year are Syria. The speed of travel of Syrian refugees is increasing. NATO ally supreme commander in Europe, Philip Breedlove, said Tuesday that Putin and Assad are deliberately bombing civilian refugees so cause problems for Europe. It is estimated that up to 1,500 foreign fighters have returned to Europe with the flow of refugees - needle in a haystack, but the needle nonetheless.

Leave aside the humanitarian concerns of crime and the use of war refugees as a weapon. These arguments have little effect on Putin, which ignores international law regularly. If Putin is using the refugees as a weapon against Europe, it is making a strategic error.

The largest Syrian and Iraqi people in Europe who fled pumps Putin will be a powerful interest group that could help lead Europe out of its (relative to the US) pro-Russian sentiment. Currently Europe is much more friendly to Russia that the US is because European trade with Russia is much higher. We have seen how small interest groups can conduct foreign policy on certain issues - for example, the effect of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on US policy toward Israel. Million new EU citizens fleeing Russian bombs in Syria and Iraq could begin political interest groups anti-Putin in the EU once they get the residence. Refugees in Europe are already politicized, including the use of non-violent civil disobedience-.

Yes, some terrorists in the haystack refugee needles are terrorists and could cause problems in the EU, but the barn a fire under the foreign policy of the EU against Russia will go on, and could cause a much more militarized response to Putin and Assad Syria, for example, fly zones or safe areas for refugees in Syrian territory. The EU interest group of refugees could go beyond the fight against Putin in Syria and Iraq, and point to his other interests as well, for example, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and the defense of the Baltic countries. These refugees will be unlikely to support the lifting of economic sanctions on Russia, while Putin is bombarding their communities in Syria and Iraq. Greece and Hungary, two countries that were particularly friendly towards Russia in 2015, are the most affected by refugees. This has hurt its relations with Moscow. While Prime Minister Orban has maintained friendly relations with Moscow, there are signs of dissension within his governing coalition. Foreign Minister of Hungary, Peter Szijjarto, recently supported further enlargement of NATO. For Putin, those are fighting words.

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